The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Xileno

In this thread you may:

Ask any question for EVs which you need help, advice, suggestions or whatever

Discuss articles that have been hosted elsewhere (this may be reviewed after a while to see how it's working)

NB Some EV subjects may be more appropriate to continue in a separate thread. An example might be if someone is looking to buy a new car and giving an account of test-driving several ICE and EV vehicles. Another example might be if someone is giving an update on the EV they have bought and wants to feedback their experiences to others. Moderators will use their discretion in situations like these.

Rules:
No or minimal politics
No arguments or slanging matches
Nothing which we think is not following the spirit of the thread
Nothing that risks the future of this site (please see forum terms and conditions)

Any of the above are likely to be deleted. If the thread becomes difficult to maintain it will be removed.

When a thread gets to a certain size it will be made read-only and a new Volume created.

This is Volume 8. Previous Volumes will not be deleted but will get locked.

A list of previous Volumes can be found HERE



PLEASE NOTE:

When posting a NEW issue for discussion, please "Reply to" the first message in this thread, i.e. this one. This keeps each question in its own separate segment and stops each new question from getting mixed up in amongst existing questions. Also please remember to change the subject header.

Edited by Xileno on 31/03/2024 at 11:45

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Krug

My apologies if this question has been asked before

Even the slowest/cheapest public EV charging rates seem to go no lower than 50p/kWh, which is much more than typical rates for home charging.

I appreciate that providers are generally motivated by profit, but surely competition should be driving charges down. Why are rates so high at public EV charging stations?

-----------------------------------------------

Background

-----------------------------------------------

I have a late 2019 BMW 330e plug-in hybrid, which I normally charge overnight offpeak at 13.3p/kWh. Most of my journeys fall within the car's 30-35 mile electric range.

The last long drive I undertook was a 105 mile (170km) last leg journey home from Cambridge. The route was mainly highways, plus some urban driving and country lanes. The car was in its standard hybrid mode (self-charging). It had no initial battery charge.

We averaged 5.5l/100km (51.4mpg), not as good as I would normally expect but it was a rainy day, we were three adults plus luggage and we were using seat heaters and aircon to help dry our wet clothes. Petrol cost £1.42/litre, giving a journey cost of £7.80/100km or a total of £13.26 for the 105 mile journey (170km).

My hybrid will only drive 50-60km on electric range, so plugging in for long trips has limited benefit. When I saw the high cost of public EV chargers I decided to compare my fuel cost with the public charging cost for an EV. Assuming the EV could achieve roughly 4 miles per kWh in real world conditions, I would need 26.25kWh to cover the 105 mile (170km) trip. At 50p/kWh (slow charger) that would cost £13.13.

In summary, a 4 mile/kWh EV charged at 50p/kWh costs roughly the same to run as a 51mpg car at a petrol cost of £1.42/litre.

Other than the environmental considerations, public chargers would seem to offer little incentive to drive an EV. Given the time taken to charge at 7kW (50p/kWh generally only applies to slow chargers), there is even less incentive. Of course, for EV owners who can charge at home there are clear savings.

Octopus energy are one company who offer cheap domestic EV charging rates, especially for those with smart meters and smart chargers. Yet according to their Electroverse App, public charging rates for their partner locations cost up to 10x more than their cheapest home charging rates. I cannot see how such costs can be justified.

I can't help but wonder the extent to which EV drivers' range anxiety is exacerbated by the very high cost of public charging. Our German friends love visiting the UK, but I don't think they'll bring their Tesla again. They found our public charging points were generally both slower and more expensive than those of France or Germany.

I'm reluctant to switch to an EV when I already cover 85% of my driving on battery. The high public charging prices are a disincentive.

I'm disappointed that green energy suppliers, councils, government bodies and those who champion wide-spread adoption of EVs don't seem to be putting downward pressure on public EV charging prices.

I'd be very interested to hear EV drivers' views, either supporting or opposing.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
Nothing else to add, really, apart from echoing the fact that public charging is horrifically expensive.
About 11 times the cost of charging at home on a suitable overnight tariff. 7.5p per kWh on Octopus Intelligent Go for 6 hours each night, versus 85p per kWh on a 50kW Instavolt charger near me. Another nearby is 82p. Yes, they’re much faster, but public charging is ridiculously expensive.
Fortunately, and this is a general case, folks who use public charging will be expensing it back to their companies whilst people who would pay with their own money are likely to get enough range from charging at home.
Having VAT at 5% on home electricity but 20% for charging in public doesn’t help.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
The huge cost of motorway ev charging and the hassle we had last time finding available and operational chargers had old Terrance the 14yr old Toyota pressed into service on our trip down to Whitley Bay and Beamish over the weekend.

I’m glad we changed our minds at the last minute and left “Leo” the Leaf at home as the services we planned on using and still stopped at for lunch and a toilet break had all but two of their chargers (including every Tesla chargers) offline. It looked like they were upgrading them but it was inconvenient for EV users that they only had two working and loads of cars sitting waiting on them.

We arrived no worse off financially thanks to the ludicrous 85p/kwh fees and old Terrance’s ability to travel there and back plus plenty of running around when there without having refuel until we got to the filling station round the corner from our house which charges far less than our extortionate motorway services.

Holiday travels were a more pleasant experience than last time. The public charging network in Whitley Bay was poor also and the park we stayed at had no charging infrastructure unlike the one we visited down in Lincolnshire last time we ventured south. The park also banned the use of granny chargers to charge EV’s through the caravan’s own power supply and the two chargers we found at Beamish looked to be offline also.

They authorities that be are simply not taking this seriously at all. I’m happy driving our EV’s but not when I’m having to search around for a working charger, then having to sit in a que for it and then robbed at more than ten times the cost I can charge it at home to fill it. Our family will remain a one ev (for commuting and local running) and one petrol car family for the foreseeable.

Soon to be replaced 14 year old 110,000 mile Avensis managed 44.8mpg over the weekend and performed without fault, I doubt a 14yr old EV will be capable of long range drives like this in the future without a huge jump in battery tech and/or a huge drop in battery costs.



Edited by SLO76 on 01/04/2024 at 18:14

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - leaseman

Did you manage to hit the tide right at Whitley Bay and get across to St Mary's island and see the seal colony SLO76???

Next time you visit, give me the heads-up!!!!

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76

Did you manage to hit the tide right at Whitley Bay and get across to St Mary's island and see the seal colony SLO76???

Next time you visit, give me the heads-up!!!!

Planned on doing that this morning before leaving, but the weather was rotten. Next time I’ll get the guided tour!
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Andrew-T
Nothing else to add, really, apart from echoing the fact that public charging is horrifically expensive. .

Can't say I'm surprised, as the initial cost of installing these devices must be significant, and has to be covered somehow !

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Krug
Can't say I'm surprised, as the initial cost of installing these devices must be significant, and has to be covered somehow !

I can't accept that the cost of the chargers is the cost driver. Petrol pumps are far more expensive to install. Nor do I accept the 20% VAT vs. 5% for home charging is responsible for jacking the prices up to 10x domestic rates. I think it's safe to assume that public charger operators will be buying bulk electricity at lower prices than the average Joe.

Besides, capital costs just as easily be amortised through encouraging more use at cheaper rates. Some of the chargers on council property in Cambridge looked like they hadn't been used in ages and were just taking up parking spots.

If the cost of chargers was the driver of high pricing, those operators who have amortised their installation costs would be in a position to compete on price with their competitors. And there seems no reason why public charging rates couldn't be reduced during off-peak times.

The minimal variation in public charging prices across the country suggests some form of price collusion. Any government that is serious about encourging EV adoption should be looking at both the cost and the availability of public charging.

I'd like to see a cap on charging rates to around 25-30p/kWh and a lower cap for off-peak use to help balance the grid.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Ethan Edwards

Can only add that my home charging is currently 4.5p per kw so I could do your 105m trip for £1.23 , as that's well within my 180m range. In May my new tarriff is 9p per kw so doubles to £2.46

Yes public charging is too expensive. My guess is VAT doesn't help. Domestic VAT on power is 5% whereas a public charger is 20% but still too expensive. Guess that's why I've only used it once in two and half years. For me it's there pretty much for emergency usage.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - madf

And then the Government wonders why EV uptake is poor..

It's a good thing it is as we are getting to see blackouts by 2030 when old nukes shut down..Which is why they are pushing Smart Meters - and making a mess of that as well.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
Having had a grumble about pricing, I do need to say that the public charging network is getting better daily.
At the end of February we had 57,290 devices in the UK, itself an increase of 1989 in the month.
So if you’ve a car with the now almost universal CCS charge port, it’s not a hardship to find one.
I’ve just done nearly 4000 miles in the Scenic with no home charging, and as soon as you know where your local ones are it’s a stop on the way out or the way home.
The Scenic would do 230 miles without a stop on a motorway or 300+ of mixed mileage so the only times I needed to charge away from close to home were hotel nights away.
As an example of how it works, we had a family function down the Conwy valley in North Wales. Home - destination - home was 204 miles, plus maybe 20 miles running around.
We left home with 92% battery, and if I’d been alone I’d have done it there and back without charging, arriving back with less than 5% - but my wife isn’t as comfortable with running a tank/battery down so we plugged into a charger at Chester Services (drove straight onto it), for all of 12 minutes and arrived home with 20+%.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
Do like the new electric Renault Scenic. Out of curiosity what’s the list price of yours?
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
It’s gone back to Renault now, unfortunately.

I had the Iconic (top) grade with a retail of £45,495, but the range starts at £37,495.
By way of contrast, I’m hoping to spend some time in a Dacia Spring later in the summer, via a couple of wildly contrasting ICE’s….





The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
I think the wee Dacia will do well. I was in our local Honda dealership recently, looking for a used CRV (sadly theirs were all grotesquely overpriced) and I spotted a new Honda Jazz in the showroom at £29,450!!!!

All the old buddies who used to buy a new Jazz (or similar) every three years or so have been priced right out of the market. A low cost small ev hatchback at circa £15k is just the ticket to convince a few of them to go electric. Few of them will do more than 50 miles in a day, most will be running around town constantly. A cheap easy to drive car that can be plugged in at home and is easy to operate and affordable will do well, as long as it has simple controls for heating and stereo etc instead of them being buried under menus on a touchscreen. I’ll be very interested in reading your opinions on it.

The Scenic is still far too expensive to really be economically viable without a company car allowance and/or a huge tax payer subsidy. I had a Quick Look at leasing rates and they really start at £500 plus a month for what is really a small family hatchback, nice though it is. Depreciation rules out actually buying one so PCP or leasing are really the only options and they’re costly without a tax payer funded workplace scheme. I’ll stick to used once the market has sorted those values out. The Dacia Spring may be the first ev not to plummet in value.

Edited by SLO76 on 01/04/2024 at 21:17

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
We did the maths on as close a comparison as we could, using the relevant manufacturers figures on a PCP (same term, same deposit, same annual mileage), cost per mile using WLTP fuel economy/efficiency figures based on current unleaded price and cost of charging at 7.5p per kWh, and RFL.
Comparison hybrids were KIA Sportage, Hyundai Tucson, Nissan Qashqai and Ford Kuga.
I don’t have the figures to hand, but the total cost of ownership figures showed a saving of c£2200 over 36 months for the Tucson to over £6000 for the Kuga in favour of the Scenic.
Servicing wasn’t included, but would have widened the gap further.
Even at £6000 (the figure was greater than that, but I can’t remember it), that’s £2000 per year, £166 per month, £38.46 per week saving from running the electric Scenic.
And the same principle applies throughout the hybrid vs EV range.
Yes, if you’re having to use public chargers the balance will swing the other way - but to what extent I haven’t done the sums.
And that’s half the battle - a customer walks into a showroom and asks for a petrol whatever - as ever, the sales exec takes the path of least resistance and asks ‘what colour do you want?’
Instead of having a conversation, establishing needs and wants and showing a customer that they could save money by buying a ‘more expensive’ battery electric version.
Most folks are, I believe, powertrain agnostic - they’re not massively attached to a particular method of propulsion, but they’ve not had the opportunity to have facts laid down to study. Until that happens, retail take up of EV’s will be hard work.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
All new cars are grotesquely overpriced in my opinion. Hybrids weren’t popular before because (while reliable) they add a lot of extra cost but save marginal amounts of fuel in real life use. They’re being forced on us via government legislation punishing manufacturers for not cutting emissions. This offsets the costs of petrol cars upwards and makes EV's look a little less expensive, but in reality both are hugely expensive compared to conventional petrol vehicles.

I do accept the need to move away from imported fossil fuels however, we’re far to reliant on volatile and oppressive regimes around the world and need to move away from supporting them and allowing them to exert influence over us as well as the environmental argument. It’s going to cost a load of cash until new and used vehicle industry finds ways to slash costs. I argue that without unsustainable tax payer subsidies EV’s are substantially more expensive to run than conventional petrol or diesel cars. Though that crippling depreciation can make them viable used if bought well. There are obvious risks however as the trade haven’t bypassed manufacturers ludicrous parts pricing yet - £6,500 for a Renault Zoe charger for example in one recent high profile case in the Guardian.

I haven’t done any real calculations on the subject so my opinion can be taken with a pinch of salt, but I have watched the used market and recently started visiting my local auction hall where I’m seeing used EV’s take an absolute pounding. Anyone who’s actually bought one in place of a petrol or hybrid equivalent is almost certain to have lost money overall. No one in the trade knows what to do with them value wise.

Leasing and PCP can directly be compared much more easily, but with the prices I’m seeing on forecourts and in auctions the rates will be heading upwards rapidly.

I’m not anti-EV, I don’t want the likes of Russia or OPEC having any power over us, I have an EV as our second car and it’s a brilliant commuter and local runabout. But in order to stop the free fall in EV values and the rapid increases in leasing and PCP rates the government need to force open the market and kickstart the aftermarket industry that will allow these vehicles to be repaired at sensible rates.

A new 40kw battery pack from Nisssn for our Leaf is circa £10k fitted, I know that this will cost a fraction of that cost to Nissan. If they want to reassure the market and firm up values they should sell replacement components such as battery packs and chargers at cost or near to in order to firm up used values.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Terry W
We did the maths on as close a comparison as we could, using the relevant manufacturers figures on a PCP (same term, same deposit, same annual mileage), cost per mile using WLTP fuel economy/efficiency figures based on current unleaded price and cost of charging at 7.5p per kWh, and RFL. Comparison hybrids were KIA Sportage, Hyundai Tucson, Nissan Qashqai and Ford Kuga.

I have no issue with the wisdom of going EV but there are some obvious questions. There are dangers (if this is the case) in overstating and generalising benefits!

  • is the list price greater than £40k at which point ICE pay extra VED
  • using 7.5p per kwh is lowest price night rate. Price cap per kwh is ~28p. Public chargers are up to ~70p kwh. Inevitably EV will look very good at 7.5p
  • the saving on fuel is proportionate to mileage covered - how many are assumed
  • the price gap between ICE and EV is closing but not there yet. I would expect EV PCP rates to reflect a price premium and uncertainty over future depreciation
  • has the £15k fine for selling too many ICE been reflected in lease rates.

My calculations for a more modest one or two year old s/h vehicle for ~£25k estimates EV savings of ~£800 pa. Mostly home charging with some public chargers on longer trips.

S/H EVs are attractively priced at the moment with little difference in age and spec between EV and ICE for similar priced vehicles.

However an £800-1000 saving comes with some risks - possible recharging hassle once or twice per month, and costs and availability of spare parts.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - badbusdriver

Lease deals chop and change constantly, but if you are in the right place at the right time, very good deals are available.

An example applicable to myself I noticed a couple of weeks ago was a Renault Kangoo E-Tech for £137 (plus VAT) per month over two years with 12 months up front. Not available any more of course, but having a look on the lease comparison website I occasionally browse out of curiosity, the cheapest van to lease (10k miles) of any fuel source is the Nissan badged version of the Kangoo E-Tech at £177 (plus VAT) per month. Second cheapest coming up is a Berlingo diesel for an extra £33 per month!

The Scenic E-Tech mentioned above (contrary to claim) is available from £390 with an 8k mileage allowance. The similar sized Subaru Solterra (71.4kWh) and VW ID.5 (77kWh) can be had for £287 and £312 per month respectively. And a Nissan Leaf (39kWh) can be had for just £210 per month.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
“ The Scenic E-Tech mentioned above (contrary to claim) is available from £390”

Can you share the name of this firm as the cheapest I can find the Scenic is substantially higher even with a hefty 9 months advance payment. I typically compare leasing rates on EV’s to petrol cars by assuming a one month advance payment and 12k p/a mileage, both of which are more realistic to most punters. Few have £4-£5k to put down upfront, and this amount is often forgotten about when comparing costs.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - badbusdriver
“ The Scenic E-Tech mentioned above (contrary to claim) is available from £390” Can you share the name of this firm as the cheapest I can find the Scenic is substantially higher even with a hefty 9 months advance payment. I typically compare leasing rates on EV’s to petrol cars by assuming a one month advance payment and 12k p/a mileage, both of which are more realistic to most punters. Few have £4-£5k to put down upfront, and this amount is often forgotten about when comparing costs.

Lease Loco, 12 months up front

config

And yes, I agree that it is a lot of money to put down up front. But that isn't the question, it is how the lease price of an EV compares to a petrol/diesel/hybrid equivalent.

Also, the initial payment on that website can be adjusted up or down. But clearly the latter will mean higher monthly payments. For example, adjust the initial payment on the Scenic down to £3k and the monthly payment goes up to £433.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - madf

"All the old buddies who used to buy a new Jazz (or similar) every three years or so have been priced right out of the market. A low cost small ev hatchback at circa £15k is just the titcket o convince a few of them to go electric. "

I would advise anyone buying a new Jazz to get a 5 year warranty. Brake simulators fail around 3 years old. Replacement cost £2500. Honda not playing ball on fault..Parts take months to arrive.

DO not buy a used one without a Honda warranty.

See Jazz owners club:clubjazz.org/forum/index.php?topic=16448.0;topicse...n

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
‘A new 40kw battery pack from Nisssn for our Leaf is circa £10k fitted, I know that this will cost a fraction of that cost to Nissan. If they want to reassure the market and firm up values they should sell replacement components such as battery packs and chargers at cost or near to in order to firm up used values’

No different to my daughter’s 52 registered Clio that needs a replacement ABS pump/control module. A new replacement comfortably exceeds the monetary value of the car, but a functioning used unit will keep it running until she graduates next year.
Same with EV batteries - absolutely no future in fitting a new one to an older car when a perfectly fit used one will do the job. Or just an individual module may do the job.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
‘A new 40kw battery pack from Nisssn for our Leaf is circa £10k fitted, I know that this will cost a fraction of that cost to Nissan. If they want to reassure the market and firm up values they should sell replacement components such as battery packs and chargers at cost or near to in order to firm up used values’ No different to my daughter’s 52 registered Clio that needs a replacement ABS pump/control module. A new replacement comfortably exceeds the monetary value of the car, but a functioning used unit will keep it running until she graduates next year. Same with EV batteries - absolutely no future in fitting a new one to an older car when a perfectly fit used one will do the job. Or just an individual module may do the job.

A part that’s available for £25-£50 used hardly comparable to an EV battery pack though. A used 40kw pack fitted would still cost £5-£6k or so which is a killer for used car values. In time costs will come down, but much could be done by government to force open the market to private firms. Big manufacturers are treating EV’s as disposable goods.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
Maybe so, but the principle of recycling EV batteries has just saved you a hypothetical 50% on a battery you don’t need :).
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Terry W

Availability of s/h parts relies upon a large number of sc***ped vehicles from which parts can be taken. Market forces will drive down prices.

EVs have sold in relatively modest numbers only for about 3 years. To be sc***ped they would have been involved in a major accident, or uneconomic to repair. It is no surprise s/h parts are limited.

That manufacturers have little interest in remanufacturing parts in very small volumes that are now obsolete is similarly no surprise - hence the high prices.

Understandably extortionate prices for EV parts - new or s/h - provoke loud and angry responses. Whether this is a real problem is another matter.

Do (say) 1% or 20% of battery packs fail. If the former it is just an ownership risk not much different to a major ICE engine failure (it happens), if the latter it is a real issue.

This may just be the inevitable growing pain of a major new technology - in (say) 10 years technology will have stabilised somewhat, older cars will be sc***ped, and higher EV sales mean more accident damaged newer vehicles.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

The Scenic will probably begin to look decent value used in a couple of years time.

Mégane E-Techs are already down to £20k retail at 18 months old and about 10k on the clock. I suspect the Scenic will follow a similar pattern.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

On the leaf battery packs I suspect the 40kwh pack price on the used market is bumped up a bit by the fact that it can also be fitted to any leaf including an early 2012 one.

The Mk 1 and Mk 2 leaf are very, very similar underneath with most parts interchangeable.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Ethan Edwards

Availability of s/h parts relies upon a large number of sc***ped vehicles from which parts can be taken. Market forces will drive down prices.

Couple of valid points there. My answer was to buy a Vauxhall EV. Lots of parts are common to the fossil fuel version so that ticks one of your boxes.

Second the source of used traction batteries is far more numerous than you may think. The same pack is common to the Corsa/ Mokka and probably the e208 e 2008 etc its the widely used 50kwh one. However that's before I fould out the battery pack is one of the more reliable components. Three years in and mines A OK. Cost wise less than 4 grand.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

Seen the report today that Tesla's sales are now 8% lower than the same time the previous year, and looking at the graph, sales have been on a downward trajectory since the high point of July / August 2023.

Probably both the effects of a shrinking market, higher costs and cheap Chinese imports. I suspect their income will also reduce quite a bit given they've had to reduce prices quite a lot to compete.

How much the manufacturer's partial closure of one factory to facilitate the retool for a new model and the 'environmentalist' arson attack has had, who knows.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Terry W

Year to date (Feb) sales of BEV are increased by 21.3% over the same period last year and their market share by 1.5% to 15.8%.

Your observations about shrinking Tesla sales due to more competition, particularly Chinese, is correct. But it is not a shrinking market!!

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

Year to date (Feb) sales of BEV are increased by 21.3% over the same period last year and their market share by 1.5% to 15.8%.

Your observations about shrinking Tesla sales due to more competition, particularly Chinese, is correct. But it is not a shrinking market!!

That's rather disingenuous in my view, given that the drop in sales has generally only been since last summer / early autumn, which by coincidence was when second hand car prices (and especially EVS) started to dramatically slide.

It'll be interesting to see the comparison in late summer onwards, especially when potential EV buyers see how badly such cars are depreciating and how high their insurance (and even running) costs will likely be in comparison to their existing ICE car.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302

Probably both the effects of a shrinking market, higher costs and cheap Chinese imports. I suspect their income will also reduce quite a bit given they've had to reduce prices quite a lot to compete.

Don't forget there is a lot more competition from the established makes as well.

Not sure I understand what you mean by a shrinking market though? EV sales are increasing and by 2035 that's all there will be.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

Probably both the effects of a shrinking market, higher costs and cheap Chinese imports. I suspect their income will also reduce quite a bit given they've had to reduce prices quite a lot to compete.

Don't forget there is a lot more competition from the established makes as well.

Not sure I understand what you mean by a shrinking market though? EV sales are increasing and by 2035 that's all there will be.

Since the early autumn of 2023, sales have been down. And just because policy makers want EVs to be the only new cars sold by 2030 or 2035 (depending on which Uniparty you pick), that doesn't mean it is the right policy for the circumstances and must be a 'fait accompli'.

Eventually the public will come to realise this. That doesn't mean EVs should never be only sold, just that for many reasons (which we've all discussed before at length) the timescale and method of transition to them is way too short and forced.

Again, I note that the overwhelming majority fo those arguing the policy is a 'good thing' are people who can both easily afford to change to EV and, if it proves a bad mistake, to change back again.

A large percentage of the population cannot, plus public transport will never fill the void because it is too inflexible and impractical for many types of use that cars are.

I would also note that at the same time, ownership and use of second hand cars will be made so expensive / difficult by the same legal mechanisms (and agenda) that poorer people will be effectively priced out of social mobility and back into serfdom.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302

Probably both the effects of a shrinking market, higher costs and cheap Chinese imports. I suspect their income will also reduce quite a bit given they've had to reduce prices quite a lot to compete.

Don't forget there is a lot more competition from the established makes as well.

Not sure I understand what you mean by a shrinking market though? EV sales are increasing and by 2035 that's all there will be.

Since the early autumn of 2023, sales have been down. And just because policy makers want EVs to be the only new cars sold by 2030 or 2035 (depending on which Uniparty you pick), that doesn't mean it is the right policy for the circumstances and must be a 'fait accompli'.

EV sales in the UK were 267,204 in 2022 and 314,687 in 2023 according to a Fleet News article. They also mentioned that the dip in EV sales towards the end of the year is because this year manufacturers need to sell 22% of all new sales as EVs so will have withheld sales until this year to boost this years figures and avoid fines.

If forcing EVs in quickly is the right policy or not is a different question - and not really for this thread.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

Probably both the effects of a shrinking market, higher costs and cheap Chinese imports. I suspect their income will also reduce quite a bit given they've had to reduce prices quite a lot to compete.

Don't forget there is a lot more competition from the established makes as well.

Not sure I understand what you mean by a shrinking market though? EV sales are increasing and by 2035 that's all there will be.

Since the early autumn of 2023, sales have been down. And just because policy makers want EVs to be the only new cars sold by 2030 or 2035 (depending on which Uniparty you pick), that doesn't mean it is the right policy for the circumstances and must be a 'fait accompli'.

EV sales in the UK were 267,204 in 2022 and 314,687 in 2023 according to a Fleet News article. They also mentioned that the dip in EV sales towards the end of the year is because this year manufacturers need to sell 22% of all new sales as EVs so will have withheld sales until this year to boost this years figures and avoid fines.

If forcing EVs in quickly is the right policy or not is a different question - and not really for this thread.

Why not? Perhaps because those advocating for it are having their reasons 'found out'?

I would also point to reports that state that currently the only thing keeping BEV sales above water in the last 12 months was fleet sales, as private sales are going significantly into reverse and mainly back to petrol cars and especially hybrids.

In my view, once the dramatic drop in second hand values for BEVs filters through to leasing and hire purchase contract costs for the entire market, I wouldn't be at all surprised that similar changes in purchasing decisions are made to that of Hertz (was it?) in the US which dumped BEVs en-masse,

The problem with all this, rather like the similar tech in the 'green' industries of home heating, solar power, etc is that, in my view the market has been deliberately manipulated by those standing to gain financially and politically (power) when a far more organic growth and a healthy dose of both realism and honesty would've done us all a lot better.

As it is, both have made significant contributions to the decline of Western societies, and especially those on middle and lower incomes, benefitting the already rich and powerful and with no real positive effect on the environment and people if you take things globally, given how and where much of the tech (including raw materials) is sourced, produced and by whom.

Edited by Engineer Andy on 04/04/2024 at 14:53

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Steveieb

Thank you Andy for injecting a dose of realism into this discussion!

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - barney100

I am not convinced the 2035 date as the 2030 one will hold. Tesla has laid off 10% of it's workforce and reduced prices which begs he question why?

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302

Tesla has laid off 10% of it's workforce and reduced prices which begs he question why?

They expanded too quickly so have excess workers - quite common when a new company expands quickly.

There is a lot more competition in EVs now that most manufacturers make them so that affects sales.

Elon Musk is a bit of a (insert word of choice) and since purchasing Twitter his 'fame' is pushing people away from considering Tesla cars

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
The latest public charging data has just been published - in addition to c700,000 home and work chargers, there were (at the end of March) 59,590 charging devices installed.
That’s a 10.5% increase since the end of 2023 and a 47% increase since the end of March 2023.
It’s an average of 1900 per month, as opposed to 1400 per month in 2023.

transportandenergy.com/2024/04/08/charge-point-ins.../

www.zap-map.com/ev-stats/how-many-charging-points

Edited by mcb100 on 09/04/2024 at 08:54

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - madf

If you ignore TOTAL numbers and look at locations

www.zap-map.com/ev-stats/how-many-charging-points (scroll down to see location analysis)

You can see that distribution is weighted to London and SE.. which is no use to half the population...

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
Simply because London is blessed with way more kerbside and lamppost chargers than anywhere else. Useful for those without drives.
I’m in Oldham - not the epicentre of anything, really, and I’ve got 43 rapid chargers within a 15 minute drive of home.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
‘ I would also point to reports that state that currently the only thing keeping BEV sales above water in the last 12 months was fleet sales, as private sales are going significantly into reverse and mainly back to petrol cars and especially hybrids.’

Difficult to quantify this as a high proportion of EV registrations are as part of a salary sacrifice scheme, so registering as a ‘fleet’ sale and has simply replaced what would have happened previously. Which would have been someone buying a car themselves as a retail deal.
Difficult to assign figures to that.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

I must admit I am genuinely surprised how low BEV registrations have been in the first three months of 2024. With a big influx of new models and the ZEV mandate I'd expected some sort of uplift.

As it stands manufacturers are way, way off target for hitting the 2024 minimum percentage this year.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
One or two Japanese brands in particular will be looking to buy credits from OEM’s who are ahead of 22%.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - FiestaOwner

I must admit I am genuinely surprised how low BEV registrations have been in the first three months of 2024. With a big influx of new models and the ZEV mandate I'd expected some sort of uplift.

As it stands manufacturers are way, way off target for hitting the 2024 minimum percentage this year.

Can't say that I'm particularly surprised. Most of the EV prices are far too high and they depreciate far too fast. Also, too many stories of people buying EV's, then reverting back to ICE.

The manufacturers are really needing to show that they have confidence in their EV offerings.

One area of concern is the cost of replacing a battery pack. I know that it is claimed that the degradation is very slow and the battery shouldn't need replaced during the car's lifetime. However, if they stated that they would replace a faulty battery pack, for say £2,000, it would give the used car buyer a great deal of confidence, and should help second hand car prices. If the batteries are as good as the manufacturers claim, then it shouldn't cost them anything either. So everyone's a winner.

SLO76 was also quoting the extortionate cost of replacing the onboard battery charger on a Renault Zoe, apparently a common fault.

If your average working man doesn't have the confidence that they won't be hit with big bills (and depreciation), then they just won't buy EV's.

If EV's were made simpler then they could also be cheaper. The only tech I want and need is: Parking sensors/ camera, Heated and Electric adjustable mirrors, remote locking, electric windows, cruise control (not adaptive). Don't need big alloy wheels or fancy screens.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - madf

I must admit I am genuinely surprised how low BEV registrations have been in the first three months of 2024. With a big influx of new models and the ZEV mandate I'd expected some sort of uplift.

As it stands manufacturers are way, way off target for hitting the 2024 minimum percentage this year.

Simple. Total private buyers purchases are way down year on year.

Cost of living couple with prices means new cars less affordable = then think insurance.

Also next year Government are adding Vehicle Licence to BEVs in 2025 in attempt to discourage - sorry encourage - more sales No more exemptions. And Insurance costs are rising.

You really could not make it up for incompetence.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Andrew-T

<< You really could not make it up for incompetence. >>

No doubt there will have been some incompetence, but quite apart from the unpredictable factors affecting some people's decisions, I doubt that anyone was able to tell, or even guess, how the car-owning and -driving population would react to the whole concept ? It always feels nice to accuse some group of elected or unelected people of incompetence.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

The Telegraph is reporting that VAG's European sales of EVs are 24% down over the first quarter of year, and have significantly dragged down the year-on year rise in UK sales down to 3.8% up, with ICE sales on that metric up 9.2%.

As I mentioned in another recent post, this may have started to include sales that end up as lease-hire for company cars, but I suspect a far bigger drop will be coming over the next year and so as contracts lapse and companies look for the best value deals.

I also suspect that Londoners will particularly and increasingly shy away from them more so as I read that Mayor Khan is ploughing ahead with road pricing because (presumably) his ego can't admit failure after spending £Ms on 'research' into it.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - movilogo

Tesla reducing headcount due to falling sales.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/15/ftse-100-m.../

Tesla will reportedly lay off 10pc of its global workforce as demand for electric vehicles wanes and amid increased competition from China.

The world’s largest electric car maker will cut around 14,000 roles under the plan. It employs about 140,000 people.

Chief executive Elon Musk announced the “difficult decision” in an internal memo to staff that was leaked to Electrek.

He said: “Over the years, we have grown rapidly with multiple factories scaling around the globe. With this rapid growth there has been duplication of roles and job functions in certain areas. As we prepare the company for our next phase of growth, it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity.

“As part of this effort, we have done a thorough review of the organisation and made the difficult decision to reduce our headcount by more than 10pc globally.

“There is nothing I hate more, but it must be done. This will enable us to be lean, innovative and hungry for the next growth phase cycle.”

Tesla has been contacted for comment. The job cuts come after Tesla revealed its first drop in quarterly car sales in four years during the first .

The company blamed the tough start to the year on teething problems with the production of its updated Model 3 at its Californian factory and “factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin”.

Its shares have fallen by more than 40pc since July as it has also battled stiff competition from rivals like China’s BYD.

Industry figures this month showed that electric car demand slowed sharply in Britain in a sign that drivers are turning back to petrol.

The market share of battery electric vehicles (EVs) declined last month, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said.

EV registrations rose only 3.8pc from a year earlier, compared with a 10pc advance in the overall car market. Hybrid and petrol-powered cars showed the strongest growth.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Ethan Edwards

But if it kicks off in the ME and petrol costs skyrocket. EVs will be back in demand. Also not sending money into the ME by not buying petrol is a good thing imo.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - RT

But if it kicks off in the ME and petrol costs skyrocket. EVs will be back in demand. Also not sending money into the ME by not buying petrol is a good thing imo.

Will they? If oil prices rocket then other energy prices like electricity will too.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

But if it kicks off in the ME and petrol costs skyrocket. EVs will be back in demand. Also not sending money into the ME by not buying petrol is a good thing imo.

Will they? If oil prices rocket then other energy prices like electricity will too.

Indeed - given that natural gas prices on the wholesale market are de facto linked to the oil price even without the effects of wars affecting major producers.

If it is long-lasting (as long as we all aren't xed out by nukes in the process), this will likely cause even worse inflation than before, meaning many more won't be able to afford new cars, and could easily lead to many manufacturers going bankrupt, especially because so many of them were heavily 'encouraged' by governments and activist organisations to invest so heavily in EV R&D and production in such a short timeframe.

Note that in China there already are huge fields full of millions of unsold / unused locally-made EVs. How will Western firms cope when their supposedly 'middle of the road' EV costing a minimum of 40% more than a ICE equivalent (now expensive in itself and out of reach for many more than 10 years ago) is almost unsaleable because of very high inflation and a likely economic depression, never mind the threat of WWIII?

The 1930s all over again, possibly even worse this time.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302

Note that in China there already are huge fields full of millions of unsold / unused locally-made EVs.

Except that's not true - not sure if it was you or someone else on here that mentioned it -but if you look into it then it was a large company that had gone out of business and there was a field of cars that belonged to the company. Nothing more exciting that that.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

Note that in China there already are huge fields full of millions of unsold / unused locally-made EVs.

Except that's not true - not sure if it was you or someone else on here that mentioned it -but if you look into it then it was a large company that had gone out of business and there was a field of cars that belonged to the company. Nothing more exciting that that.

Actually I've seen a good few reports, but one (they may well be different reports of different lots of car) stated that a) it was a 'car sharing firm' that went bust, but that the cars left in the fields and b) more than one car make and model was involved, including BYD and Geely, both of whom are definitely still in business.

I would've though, given the high price of EVs that many on modest incomes would jump at the chance to own an unused EV at a knock-down price, and that the creditors of the defunct car-sharing firm would be very willing to sell them to recoup some of their losses, especially as at least some of the cars are from makes still in business, and even with those that aren't, there surely must be somebody willing to maintain them - for a price.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302

Actually I've seen a good few reports, but one (they may well be different reports of different lots of car) stated that a) it was a 'car sharing firm' that went bust, but that the cars left in the fields and b) more than one car make and model was involved, including BYD and Geely, both of whom are definitely still in business.

I would've though, given the high price of EVs that many on modest incomes would jump at the chance to own an unused EV at a knock-down price, and that the creditors of the defunct car-sharing firm would be very willing to sell them to recoup some of their losses, especially as at least some of the cars are from makes still in business, and even with those that aren't, there surely must be somebody willing to maintain them - for a price.

How do we know they have not been sold on now?

Do we know what the charging network in China is like for folks on more modest incomes?

What has BYD and Geely being existing businesses got to do with anything?

When a business goes out of business in China how does the process work?

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

Actually I've seen a good few reports, but one (they may well be different reports of different lots of car) stated that a) it was a 'car sharing firm' that went bust, but that the cars left in the fields and b) more than one car make and model was involved, including BYD and Geely, both of whom are definitely still in business.

I would've though, given the high price of EVs that many on modest incomes would jump at the chance to own an unused EV at a knock-down price, and that the creditors of the defunct car-sharing firm would be very willing to sell them to recoup some of their losses, especially as at least some of the cars are from makes still in business, and even with those that aren't, there surely must be somebody willing to maintain them - for a price.

How do we know they have not been sold on now?

a) the report wasn't that long ago

b) the size of the field and number of cars therein was enormous

and so its highly unlikely there'd be much in the way of purchasers.

Do we know what the charging network in China is like for folks on more modest incomes?

Whatever the situation, it was obviously a huge miscalculation to get them into this much trouble, rather like their (actual) ghost cities full of unsold/unused flats. Getting to be rather common in China, probably a result of the significant sleights of hand by the CCP to pretend to the world that their economy has been growing at a large rate, when in actuality there's a lack of demand which is being paid for by secret money 'printing', just as it has in the West for decades now.

What has BYD and Geely being existing businesses got to do with anything?

The comment previously was that 'they had gone out of business' and thus the cars could not presumably be maintained. I was stating that this wasn't true because many of the cars were from makes still operating (and like BYD, expanding into the West), and thus very capable of being maintained.

I suspect that even those cars built by a firm that went under, some enterprising people would want to maintain them if there were enough of them, was a market to sell them (seemingly not) and the cars were roadworthy.

Surely you must of understood that?

When a business goes out of business in China how does the process work?

Not sure what that has to do with the situation. The cars are there, unused and unsold in huge fields.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Ethan Edwards

Indeed and for those not on fixed rates that could be bad.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

It's not clear to be why any sort of inflation will affect EV cars more than ICE?

Also electricity prices are influenced by the cost of gas not oil. Whilst there is a cross over of oil and gas sources it's not a precise one.

Edited by pd on 16/04/2024 at 23:12

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

It's not clear to be why any sort of inflation will affect EV cars more than ICE?

Also electricity prices are influenced by the cost of gas not oil. Whilst there is a cross over of oil and gas sources it's not a precise one.

The international price of natural gas and oil are linked because mostly both are extracted by either the same firms and/or in areas under the control of the same nations (for obvious geological reasons).

As such, changes in prices for one due to geopolitical issues or otherwise will obviously affect both, but also things like seasonal effects because both are used more heavily when consumption is higher and are are dependent upon world economic fortunes by way of production of manufactured goods, whether via the raw material (oil to make plastics, clothing, etc) or the electrical energy used in their production, distribution and sales.

Oil is a very versatile resource, which can be effectively split up into many forms to make many highly useful products, natural gas is primarily used to provide heat to buildings and for cooking, and nowadays to generate electricity.

If the mix of use were what it was 30-40 years ago, and the West had gone heavily into nuclear for electricity production instead of via natural gas (easier and cheaper in the short term, bad for the medium and longer term as reserves are used up at a far higher rate), then there would be far less volatility in electricity prices and thus the cost of running EVs.

It may have naturally encouraged car manufacturers to invest in EV tech and thus other market volatility would be significantly lessened, because stability is far better for long term growth than artificially forcing change and in an (ironically) unsustainable way.

Going the nuclear route would've also lessened the influence and negative effects of conflicts between nations, especially those heavily involved in the natural gas and oil business.

As Western nations are now heavily relying on both non-based load 'green' energy and imports, both put a tremendous strain on the use of their main electricity source - natural gas power plants, and by virtue, reserves, particularly at periods of high demand and/or reduced supply.

Storing oil (and byproducts, refined or otherwise) is relatively easy and cheap compared to doing the same for electricity and gas - whether natural gas or, as some are touting, hydrogen, because oil has a high energy density (especially petrol), whereas gas does not in comparison, and hydrogen required it be stored under very high pressures and extremely low temperatures, which is incredibly inefficient and expensive compared to oil, etc.

Unfortunately, electricity users are also the final user in the chain, and why prices have shot up so much. It obviously doesn't help when VAT on charging at home is 5% and commercially at 20%.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - madf

It's all irrelevant.

To meet its Net Zero targets,we need LOTS more electricity generation. Some of that needs to be nuclear for the 5 to 10 weeks of the year when wind does not work. (Solar is irrelevant at night)

Old nukes will all close by 2030 . Only two new nukes in build to replace the old ones.

NO new nukes on order. NONE. Lead time for a new one ordered today to produce ? 10-15 years.

SO we will run out of electricity in 2030 for some periods. Heat pumps? Joke.

It is a shambles. Heads should roll -literally.

Buy a stand by generator.. There will be riots.. so do not use it to advertise you have one...

Edited by madf on 17/04/2024 at 18:56

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Terry W

Somewhat surprisingly there is only a limited correlation between oil and gas prices historically, not a clear link. Crude Oil vs Natural Gas - 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends

I agree the UK should have invested far more heavily in nuclear to meet base load demand. Prices would have been more stable with less reliance on international markets.

However France supplies ~70% of electricity demand through nuclear yet their uptake of EVs is similar to the UK. That more nuclear would have stimulated more EV demand is questionable.

Green energy brings with it the need to store that not immediately needed. There is a 20+ year opportunity to get our act together. That today it is not possible does not make it insoluble - the challenge is how to do it cost effectively, not whether it can be done.

Charging on motorways is ~75p kwh - equivalent to ~20p per mile. The equivalent ICE cost assuming 35mpg and fuel at ~£1.50 per litre would be similar.

As a strategy sticking with fossil fuels is a complete dead end - supply is ultimately limited, and as reserves become exhausted prices will increase either due to simple supply and demand economics, or the cost of extraction as more marginal reserves are exploited.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
I’m just not convinced the manufacturers actually want EV’s to be a success. It’s horror stories like this (seen on a regular basis) that are killing demand and causing a free fall in used values. This nonsense needs to be hammered out and the only way is to refuse to buy. I wouldn’t touch a used Renault EV with the amount of similar stories I’m reading. Manufacturers must get repair costs under control and stop treating EV’s as disposable appliances if they’re genuinely trying to be environmentally friendly.

On the other hand it is making them cheap to buy. Apparently my firm has just bought several used Zoe’s as pool cars for the drivers to replace our aged fleet. The one Zoe we have now has been hassle free but too limited in range to cover all our needs so I’m assuming the newer cars are black get battery models.

We’ll see how they handle the abuse


www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/17/renault-repa...r

Edited by SLO76 on 17/04/2024 at 19:35

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - FiestaOwner
I’m just not convinced the manufacturers actually want EV’s to be a success. It’s horror stories like this (seen on a regular basis) that are killing demand and causing a free fall in used values. This nonsense needs to be hammered out and the only way is to refuse to buy. I wouldn’t touch a used Renault EV with the amount of similar stories I’m reading. Manufacturers must get repair costs under control and stop treating EV’s as disposable appliances if they’re genuinely trying to be environmentally friendly.

I agree with you, SLO76. It's not just Renault though. Here are 2 separate cases from Hyundai wanting $60,000 (Canadian) to replace batteries in Ionic 5's

autoevolution $60000-hyundai-ioniq-5-battery-replacement-saga

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Adampr

It is a bit odd, as both of these cars were designed from the outset as EVs. You might expect some of the 'retrofitted' EV versions of ICE cars to have annoying design quirks, but there's no real excuse for Hyundai or Renault to design bespoke models in such a calamitous way.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - SLO76
“ black get battery models.”

b***** predictive text! Should read bigger battery models.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

European sales figures out today don't make pretty reading.

The market in general seems to be struggling but with all the new models and push from manufacturers EVs are losing market share and they really shouldn't be if all was well.. Hybrids seem to be the ones selling.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Steveieb

Scotty Kilmer agrees with the chief Scientist at Toyota about the limited and sensible deployment of EVs

https://youtube.com/shorts/6DPC_-VVebk?feature=shared

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Metropolis.
Despite the heavy use of stick and some carrot, it is difficult to overcome the fact that full EV are worse in almost every practical respect vs ICE or hybrid.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Adampr
Despite the heavy use of stick and some carrot, it is difficult to overcome the fact that full EV are worse in almost every practical respect vs ICE or hybrid.

That's not a fact, that's your opinion.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Metropolis.
It’s reality.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302
It’s reality.

EVs are more efficient that ICE vehicles - that's a reality.

Overall they produce more emissions over there life times - that's a reality.

They are generally fast/more powerful - that's a reality.

People whinge about things they don't like - that's a reality.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Ethan Edwards

Just an update. At end March there are 59,590 public chargers in the UK with half higher powered chargers. Adding 1400 a month.

And as far as I'm aware still less than twenty Hydrogen vehicle refuelling stations in the UK. So if Hydrogen is about to sweep in and rescue us all it's got a lot of ground to make up overnight.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - madf

Just an update. At end March there are 59,590 public chargers in the UK with half higher powered chargers. Adding 1400 a month.

And as far as I'm aware still less than twenty Hydrogen vehicle refuelling stations in the UK. So if Hydrogen is about to sweep in and rescue us all it's got a lot of ground to make up overnight.

The volume hydrogen car will become reality when the laws of physics change.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Andrew-T

<< The volume hydrogen car will become reality when the laws of physics change. >>

... and chemistry !!

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy
It’s reality.

EVs are more efficient that ICE vehicles - that's a reality.

Overall they produce more emissions over there life times - that's a reality.

If taken at the 'tailpipe' When electricity generation and transmission is taken into account, not so much, if at all, especially when taken over a lifetime. It also doesn't take in to account mining environmental issues, unethical treatment of those working in such endeavours, plus many issues that come with EVs that are beginning to increase, such as battery fires, increased costs via insurance, etc.

More than one type of usage for the word 'efficiency'.

They are generally fast/more powerful - that's a reality.

And? There isn't a higher speed limit for EVs. And as far as I know, the world speed record for a production car is still held by an ICE equipped one. That's a reality.

People whinge about things they don't like - that's a reality.

People also like to selectively state things to benefit an argument and conveniently forget other truths because it tarnished theirs.

Until TPTB, instructed by their rich and powerful handlers, ICE vehicles were far cheaper and easier to own and run, helping elevate many on poorer incomes out of poverty around the world. EVs (amongst similar policies) are currently putting that into reverse in a big way.

That's a reality.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Andrew-T

European sales figures out today don't make pretty reading.

The market in general seems to be struggling but with all the new models and push from manufacturers EVs are losing market share and they really shouldn't be if all was well.. Hybrids seem to be the ones selling.

And it's the Chinese that will be milking the market, they are starting to worry about the sales graph rising too slowly.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
‘ Overall they produce more emissions over there life times - that's a reality.’

Do keep up - there’s a huge amount of data and evidence that an EV will produce hugely lower emissions over its lifetime than an equivalent ICE. Yes, the carbon intensity as it leaves the the factory gates is greater, but from that point on running on electrons is clawing back that deficit and current figures are showing that an EV is ahead after as few as 15,000 miles.
That figure will lessen as production methods get cleaner and greener and electricity production weans itself off a majority reliance on fossil fuels.
Unless of course you meant it the other way around?
Reliance on the public charging network does reduce practicality, but not as much as you’d think, and for me that’s more than balanced out by the driving pleasure of an EV and the fact that I’m not emitting greenhouse gases that are globally damaging or particulate emissions which have a negative impression on the local environment.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302
‘ Overall they produce more emissions over there life times - that's a reality.’ Do keep up - there’s a huge amount of data and evidence that an EV will produce hugely lower emissions over its lifetime than an equivalent ICE. Yes, the carbon intensity as it leaves the the factory gates is greater, but from that point on running on electrons is clawing back that deficit and current figures are showing that an EV is ahead after as few as 15,000 miles. That figure will lessen as production methods get cleaner and greener and electricity production weans itself off a majority reliance on fossil fuels. Unless of course you meant it the other way around? Reliance on the public charging network does reduce practicality, but not as much as you’d think, and for me that’s more than balanced out by the driving pleasure of an EV and the fact that I’m not emitting greenhouse gases that are globally damaging or particulate emissions which have a negative impression on the local environment.

Ah, c*** - should have read back what I'd typed - of course I meant EV cars produce less emissions over their lifetimes.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
‘And as far as I'm aware still less than twenty Hydrogen vehicle refuelling stations in the UK. So if Hydrogen is about to sweep in and rescue us all it's got a lot of ground to make up overnight.‘
14 - and 5 of those are inside the M25. My nearest one is Sheffield, about an hour way. So I’d have to use a fair percentage of a refill going to and from a refill.
And not all of those can refuel cars, which require a reduced filling pressure of 350 bar.

Interestingly, there are plans for a new network of hydrogen filling stations, but the company concerned do say that it’s aimed at commercial vehicles primarily.

www.hydrogenbatteries.org/Where_Can_I_You_Buy_Fill...m

element-2.co.uk/

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - movilogo

it is difficult to overcome the fact that full EV are worse in almost every practical respect vs ICE or hybrid.

I tried to make a list where EVs shine vs ICEs

  1. EVs are more efficient = yes but how it affects users in real life?
  2. EVs have better acceleration = yes but 99.99% drivers drive on public road where it is not a big deal (same applies with ICE, fast cars are only useful on race tracks)
  3. EVs don't emit gases = well, can't argue on this
  4. EVs have range anxiety (small disadvantage) and long refuel (= recharge) time (big disadvantage)
  5. EVs have frunk (but not all EVs offer that - in fact some EVs have long bonnet with no frunk - very odd)
  6. EVs use battery to warm up cabin - penalty on range

Let's see on ICEs (includes HEVs)

  1. ICEs are cheaper (like for like feature and power)
  2. ICEs can be refulled in 5 minutes - this is HUGE ADVANTAGE
  3. ICEs are cheaper to insure (this is not a directly ICE advantage but indirect ownership advantage)
  4. ICEs can run heater with no range penalty = advantage in cold climate

Personally I'll buy EV when they become

  1. No more expensive than ICE
  2. Faster to recharge/refuel e.g. replaceable battery, super technology battery

#2 might happen soon especially battery which can be recharged in 5 mins to 80% capacity. This is another reason to avoid EVs now because technology is rapidly changing and not yet reached the maturity of ICEs.

But until then, using car as transport, ICE is still better overall compared to EV. That is my personal opinion.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
Cost of car - somewhat agree, but stand by for cheaper EV’s arriving over the next 12 months.

Whole life costs are a different argument (as long as you can charge at home). Running costs of c1.7 pence per mile for an EV in a beneficial tariff versus maybe 15-17 pence per mile for an EV. Plus lower servicing costs.
Put some numbers in here - www.zap-map.com/tools/journey-cost-calculator - for a comparison between EV and ICE. A typical overnight charging tariff is 7.5 pence per kW/h.

Most people will never (or very rarely) need to visit a public charger, so the refuelling time becomes irrelevant - it’s done whilst you’re asleep.


The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Andrew-T
Whole life costs are a different argument (as long as you can charge at home). Running costs of c1.7 pence per mile for an EV in a beneficial tariff versus maybe 15-17 pence per mile for an EV.

The problem with crystal-ball gazing is that you have to second-guess what future govts will do about taxing the 'fuel' for an EV. I would guess they will need to make some changes to cheap overnight charging tariff ?

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Ethan Edwards

But Government has a problem there. It's already applying two rates of VAT to leccy. 5% domestic vs 20% public chargers. It can't up domestic to 20% and even if they make you install a dedicated EV meter any freely available granny charger will become a work around. Charging albeit slowly from the domestic supply. Imo the genie is out the bottle and won't be going back.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - movilogo

Most people will never (or very rarely) need to visit a public charger, so the refuelling time becomes irrelevant - it’s done whilst you’re asleep.

Only if they never travel far or have a separate car (ICE?) for longer travel.

90% of my journeys are local. But if I had EV, for rest of 10% journeys will require public charging and I have only 1 car in family. I am sure I am not alone.

So charging issue is still very relevant - especially for single car household.

It is like having 5 seats on a car. 90% of the time I use 1 seat but other times I need 2-3 other seats and I can't afford a car with only 1-2 seats.

And charging itself is a faff, even if at own house. I often forget to charge mobile but at least I can charge it inside the car.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
If you see it as difficult then it’s difficult.
If you see it as plugging a cable into a socket, tapping a debit or credit card on a contactless pad, wandering off to use the toilets/have a coffee/whatever, then it becomes the new normal.
Longer travel is a subjective description. I did Dover to Oldham last summer in an electric Astra - not the biggest battery/longest range in the world. There’s no way I was going to do 307 miles non-stop regardless of motive power. As it happened, I got to the new services at the junction of the M6 and M1. The car would have gone further, I couldn’t. So plugged in, used the facilities. By the time I’d done that the car had pretty much enough range to get home. It was only another 10 minutes or so. Had I been a coffee drinker, I’d probably have finished it at about the same time the car was ready.
Unplugged, continued home. Easy peasy.
Does anyone ever forget to go to a petrol station?

Edited by mcb100 on 19/04/2024 at 14:48

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Terry W

There are short term considerations and a longer term strategic one.

SHORT TERM the higher initial cost of EV needs to be made affordable through subsidy which has included - road tax, fuel taxes, car benefit tax, quota fines etc.

The price of EVs has been much higher than equivalent ICE. Subsidies were needed to attract purchasers. Prices now seem to be falling rapidly, and subsidies disappearing.

Comparing the whole life costs of EV vs ICE is not convincing - the buyer of a new car may keep it for (say) 2-4 years. If the purchase premium exceeds the savings over the ownership period the financial benefit falls away. The environmental one remains!

LONG TERM transition to EV is inevitable. Best estimates are that over a lifetime they produce materially less pollution, and have performance and efficiency advantages,

EV power could (with investment in infrastructure etc) come entirely from green sources. A virtual certainty is that fossil fuels will become increasingly scarce, expensive and remain vulnerable to international stability.

Speculation - it is likely that over time taxation of EVs will emerge to replace that lost from fuel duties. Timing and method (road charging, tax on charging etc etc) is debatable.

RANGE anxiety is inconsequential for most. At present 80-90%+ charging is at home. Public facilities will need to evolve to provide those without home charging - note these are often urban locations where car ownership is lower.

If in-journey recharging is required several times a month this is clearly inconvenient. If longer journeys 2 or 3 times a year need a little bit of planning - so what!! The key is confidence that recharging facilities will be available and working when needed.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

There are short term considerations and a longer term strategic one.

SHORT TERM the higher initial cost of EV needs to be made affordable through subsidy which has included - road tax, fuel taxes, car benefit tax, quota fines etc.

The price of EVs has been much higher than equivalent ICE. Subsidies were needed to attract purchasers. Prices now seem to be falling rapidly, and subsidies disappearing.

Comparing the whole life costs of EV vs ICE is not convincing - the buyer of a new car may keep it for (say) 2-4 years. If the purchase premium exceeds the savings over the ownership period the financial benefit falls away. The environmental one remains!

The problem always has been that it is mostly road users on lower incomes who've paid through various taxes to subsidise richer EV buyers who mostly could easily afford the first and second generation EVs without ANY subsidy. Given that such taxes affect the less well off far more because they are on essentials and where they have little if any surplus income, this is patently unfair.

LONG TERM transition to EV is inevitable. Best estimates are that over a lifetime they produce materially less pollution, and have performance and efficiency advantages,

Long term isn't 10 years. Long term is 30, maybe 50+ years. The current pace of change is not beneficial to most people, only those who cannot afford it and especially those with a financial stake or power in the ('green') industry

EV power could (with investment in infrastructure etc) come entirely from green sources. A virtual certainty is that fossil fuels will become increasingly scarce, expensive and remain vulnerable to international stability.

Speculation - it is likely that over time taxation of EVs will emerge to replace that lost from fuel duties. Timing and method (road charging, tax on charging etc etc) is debatable.

There's part of the problem - the taxation was 'supposed' to be to mitigate environmental degradation, and yet it's really to line the pockets of the rich and powerful and to keep the ordinary person in their place, as well as to keep the gravy train of the bureaucracy going.

RANGE anxiety is inconsequential for most. At present 80-90%+ charging is at home. Public facilities will need to evolve to provide those without home charging - note these are often urban locations where car ownership is lower.

Only at the moment. I'd estimate that 90%+ (maybe higher) of people living in flats don't have the space (never mind the money) to install chargers, assuming they have enough parking spaces for every car (which most don't).

Many people living in terraced houses do not either, and would have rely on on-road chargers or dangerous (maybe illegal) charging cables crossing public pathways, plus the security/vandalism concerns that go with such things.

Many of the rural poor will not have the money to install chargers at home, many also have old, dilapidated homes that don't have sufficient electrical supply to fit an EV charger, and also a heat pump - which (same issue with flats, also lease issues) which is also being mandated for the same time or earlier.

Notice how most of the above affect those on lower incomes, including the young, the overwhelming majority of which won't be able to afford an EV the way general car prices (and inflation) are going, never mind heat pumps for 'heating' their homes.

Many people would have to rely on public chargers, which to me sounds like a similar situation to the 1970s oil crisis and queuing for hours to get a small amount of petrol. All the while, the well off have no issue, including because they can afford are able to put PV panels on their nice big house's roof and take advantage of that and have the space for Tesla wonderwall battery backup.

If in-journey recharging is required several times a month this is clearly inconvenient. If longer journeys 2 or 3 times a year need a little bit of planning - so what!! The key is confidence that recharging facilities will be available and working when needed.

For some, e.g. retirees, maybe a small number of longer journeys per year is the case, but many people need to undertake longer journeys more often, and like I did at short / no notice.

'Planning' for such things would not always produce a good result (broken chargers, big queues, etc), and would also eat into valuable time used for other things - including when working. Business people cannot afford to take hours longer on a trip just because they need to stop for an hour or two to recharge their car. Wasted time = wasted money = less profits or passing on increased costs to customers = higher inflation.

Also, not everyone has / can afford a smart phone and high-use tariff. Why is it that all new tech forced on the public these days is only to benefit the well off? Up until the turn of the century, they benefitted everyone, including the less well off. Few if any required public subsidy to catch on, they did so organically.

Given how many parts of EVs or charging/power generation are unethically sourced and not very 'green' (when mined, made or disposed of / recycled), I'd dispute their 'green' credentials to some degree. The main benefit is less tail pipe pollution, though increased particulates from tyres, and possibly other environmental concerns from production of electricity to power them.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

everyone has / can afford a smart phone and high-use tariff. Why is it that all new tech forced on the public these days is only to benefit the well off? Up until the turn of the century, they benefitted everyone, including the less well off. Few if any required public subsidy to catch on, they did so organically.

Whilst I agree EV adoption for the (many) people in flats, on-street parking and numerous other situations is neither as easy or anywhere near as financially advantageous than for those with parking and chargers is a very genuine issue you can get a decent Smartphone which will run any charging app you need for about £80. I think I pay £10 a month for 60Gb and unlimited calls/texts for the service at the moment. Hardly horrendous.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

everyone has / can afford a smart phone and high-use tariff. Why is it that all new tech forced on the public these days is only to benefit the well off? Up until the turn of the century, they benefitted everyone, including the less well off. Few if any required public subsidy to catch on, they did so organically.

Whilst I agree EV adoption for the (many) people in flats, on-street parking and numerous other situations is neither as easy or anywhere near as financially advantageous than for those with parking and chargers is a very genuine issue you can get a decent Smartphone which will run any charging app you need for about £80. I think I pay £10 a month for 60Gb and unlimited calls/texts for the service at the moment. Hardly horrendous.

You'd be surprised how many people are so hard up, especially these days, that they cannot afford a smartphone and on contract. Many older people (obviously not those here) find them also very difficult to use if they didn't 'grow up' with them, like my parents didn't do. They find using computers and mobiles tricky to say the least. Two of my older neighbours has never owned either.

Lots of 'small' costs that we 'have to endure' these days really start to add up. You tend not to notice it when money is more plentiful.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

You'd be surprised how many people are so hard up, especially these days, that they cannot afford a smartphone and on contract. Many older people (obviously not those here) find them also very difficult to use if they didn't 'grow up' with them, like my parents didn't do. They find using computers and mobiles tricky to say the least. Two of my older neighbours has never owned either.

Lots of 'small' costs that we 'have to endure' these days really start to add up. You tend not to notice it when money is more plentiful.

If they can't afford a smartphone then they have no hope of affording a car. Whilst I am for inclusivity you reach a point where you just have to say it is time to move on.

I know many, many people well into the 80s or 90s who are perfectly capable of using a smartphone. Even someone who is 90 now would have been 60 when, say, Windows 95 came out and almost certainly spent time during their working lives when computers and technology were very much part of it.

Smarty do 6Gb a month, unlimited calls and texts, EU roaming and 5G for £6 a month with no contract. Amazon will do you an Android phone for £59. Loads cheaper than a landline. If someone can't afford a mobile smartphone you are saying they can't have any sort of 'phone as virtually anything else is more expensive.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - alan1302

RANGE anxiety is inconsequential for most. At present 80-90%+ charging is at home. Public facilities will need to evolve to provide those without home charging - note these are often urban locations where car ownership is lower.

If in-journey recharging is required several times a month this is clearly inconvenient. If longer journeys 2 or 3 times a year need a little bit of planning - so what!! The key is confidence that recharging facilities will be available and working when needed.

That's the main reason our next car will be petrol hybrid rather than an EV - at the moment I don't have that confidence when out that there will be a charger when I need it and also that it will be working. We have the added complication that we need to be able to have space for a wheelchair as well. I'm sure it will get there though...maybe the car after the next one.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy
Cost of car - somewhat agree, but stand by for cheaper EV’s arriving over the next 12 months. Whole life costs are a different argument (as long as you can charge at home). Running costs of c1.7 pence per mile for an EV in a beneficial tariff versus maybe 15-17 pence per mile for an EV. Plus lower servicing costs. Put some numbers in here - www.zap-map.com/tools/journey-cost-calculator - for a comparison between EV and ICE. A typical overnight charging tariff is 7.5 pence per kW/h. Most people will never (or very rarely) need to visit a public charger, so the refuelling time becomes irrelevant - it’s done whilst you’re asleep.

By 'most people' you mean those more well off who make up 99.999% of EV owners, who have a house with a driveway / garage and the space/financial means/electrical supply to fit a decent home charger.

How many millions live in a flat, terraced home, council house with remote communal car park (also without the number of spaces for all cars owned by residents) or the rural poor who won't be able to get them?

How many who need to go on longer journeys (including those who make lots of short journeys per day such as trades people, carers, etc) and who work from home who are mainly in those categories going to cope?

My town, - not a 'poor' area by any means - has very poor EV public charger coverage. I can count the number of them on the fingers of one hand. Over 10k people live here. The number of them has barely change in the past 5 years. Few businesses have them installed in their car parks either.

Where I live - on a 20+ year old housing development of roughly 50/50 flats and town houses, there is practically zero space for EV chargers, even for the houses, because most car parking is in remote car parks with little to no space for chargers.

I would also note we don't have the money (and saving up would take decades to provide a service to all in each allocated space) NOR the space to install all the new chargers and new cabling , including all the infrastructure upgrades, digging up and reinstatement of roads, paths, etc.

I'd say doing so (136 homes) would cost in the several £000ks, maybe even £Ms. Our entire budget for the development's running per year, including communal garden, road/lighting (non-adopted roads) etc is about £110k.

Imagine requiring everyone to stump up 2-3x their current service charge (I currently pay £1250 for a flat owner) every year for 10 years for something you won't be able to use until 2035? We are legally NOT allowed to borrow the money to pay for it,, assuming we had the space.

Our situation is likely quite common, from what I've seen elsewhere.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Andrew-T

<< By 'most people' you mean those more well off who make up 99.999% of EV owners, who have a house with a driveway / garage and the space/financial means/electrical supply to fit a decent home charger. >>

Andy, I wonder whether you are regurgitating a point of view which may have been current in the Edwardian era, when the working classes may have looked with envy at the 'more well-off' with their new-fangled horseless carriages - and perhaps also at those actually with a horse ?

Life is not 'fair', and most attempts to introduce socialism to level things up have been rather spectacularly unsuccessful. Whenever life gets a bit fairer for some, human nature cuts in and finds ways to take advantage.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

<< By 'most people' you mean those more well off who make up 99.999% of EV owners, who have a house with a driveway / garage and the space/financial means/electrical supply to fit a decent home charger. >>

Andy, I wonder whether you are regurgitating a point of view which may have been current in the Edwardian era, when the working classes may have looked with envy at the 'more well-off' with their new-fangled horseless carriages - and perhaps also at those actually with a horse ?

How is it not true? EVs are very expensive, home chargers aren't cheap and need the space and electrical supply to install them. People on modest to low incomes rarely have these available. More wealthy people do.

Maybe if living hadn't 'suddenly' got so expensive and life more precarious, maybe, but then we don't live in those times any more, do we? Many of the 'new world order' laws etc appear to be specifically geared to making life better for the rich and powerful and exactly the opposite for everyone else.

It may not have affected you (much) yet, but I assure you many others with less means, myself included, have felt the effects hard. I also suspect some don't care because they know they won't be 'around' by the time it come to affect them in a major and possibly irrecoverable way.

Life is not 'fair', and most attempts to introduce socialism to level things up have been rather spectacularly unsuccessful. Whenever life gets a bit fairer for some, human nature cuts in and finds ways to take advantage.

The problem is that most of the strongest advocates for all these green policies (and many other draconian ones of the last decade or two) are a) those with most to gain in terms of personal wealth and power at our expense and whose advocacy gaslights the masses into saying its for their own good as well as the planet's.

That the vast majority of them also use lies, exaggerations, manipulations and effective bribing of scientists, the media and politicians to 'support' their advocacy makes it far worse.

Yet these people also pretend to be amongst the most virtuous on the planet. Talk about a contradiction-in-terms. To me, they are on a par with the worst of the last two centuries, just doing it incrementally and in a way that is less easy to spot but more difficult to do much about.

Things may get so bad that it be take a hundred years or more to undo it all, assuming most of civilisation isn't wiped out because those behind it all miscalculated. At least in the past it was obvious who was responsible because they were nearly always the person 'in charge' and their minions.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
‘ Many people living in terraced houses do not either, and would have rely on on-road chargers or dangerous (maybe illegal) charging cables crossing public pathways, plus the security/vandalism concerns that go with such things.’

No they don’t - there are multiple, council approved, cross pavement cable solutions available, such as
www.kerbocharge.com/ . There was, incidentally, a new grant announced a few weeks ago for people without off street parking but with access to on street. £350 towards a home charge solution, to be used in conjunction with a council approved cable management product.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - movilogo

EV debate is like Brexit.

Those who believe EVs are good can't be convinced they are bad.

Those who believe EVs are bad can't be convinced they are good.

However, unlike Brexit, on EV everyone still has a choice - buy EV or stick with ICE/HEV.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - pd

EV debate is like Brexit.

Those who believe EVs are good can't be convinced they are bad.

Those who believe EVs are bad can't be convinced they are good.

However, unlike Brexit, on EV everyone still has a choice - buy EV or stick with ICE/HEV.

Equally a lot of us realise they have pros and cons and are just cars like any others. You have good ones and bad ones. Equally there are challenges depending on circumstances and don't/won't work yet for everyone.

In fact, not unlike Brexit, I'm a bit "meh" about it either way. It is change but probably will all come out in the wash.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
I get that the switch to electrification is a huge event - comfortably the biggest in my 42 years of driving. It’s a massive amount of inertia to overcome.
And it’s not helped by the huge wave of anti-EV misinformation circulated on a daily basis and repeated frequently in conversations and debate online.
But I’m comfortable as a pro-EV person that I’ve got the science and data behind me from an environmental and safety point of view, and my preference as a driver is to be powered by electricity rather than petrol or diesel, neither of which come close to the levels of refinement offered by an EV.
Sure, it adds inconvenience to my day as I can’t (currently) charge at home but I’ll happily take that trade off as a small price to pay for something I’d much rather drive.

Edited by mcb100 on 19/04/2024 at 16:57

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Terry W

It is no surprise the charging infrastructure will lag demand for the next decade as the volume of EVs increases.

It is also likely the case the number of conventional fuel stations will close as fuel sales volume falls. In 20 years the newest ICE will be 10 years old - 9 out of 10 fuel stations may have closed leaving even medium size towns with no way to refuel.

Around 60% of UK homes have off street parking and presumably potential home charging capability. The question is - how will the other 40% cope.

Blocks of flats and houses with communal parking - 1 charger would comfortably service 10 cars each with 1 or 2 charges pw. Costs of installation - any forward thinking development should anticipate the capital expense and create a sinking fund - similar concept for roof replacement etc.

Supermarkets, car parks, hotels, retail parks etc are all installing chargers - home charging is not critical to EV ownership. There is a price issue to be dealt with as commercial operators will need recover installation, overheads and profit in the KWH charge.

An argument could be made to put a surplus on council tax for those house owners who install charging - in much the same way as a surcharge for a hosepipe.

However housel owners will have paid for the charger installation. Creating a disincentive to home charge may just increase the load on overloaded publicly available charging.

That the relatively well off could have afforded an EV without subsidies is academic. They also compare costs of ICE vs EV - were EV more expensive they may not have bought them. They are often well off because they do consider these things!

The better off have always been able to afford new technology first., the less well healed do not generally buy new cars. The price of 2nd owner EVs is developing and increasingly affordable. In 5-10 years time EVs will be accessible to most - just as 10 year old ICE.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Steveieb

Maybe with the downturn in sales demonstrated by the stockpiles of EVs in Zeebrugge will reduce the need to roll out the charging infrastructure to unsuitable properties?

Similarly in the US Ford have parked hundreds of unsold EV pickups in a graveyard outside Detroit .

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Xileno

I think one could argue the opposite. If the EV market is slowing then making the infrastructure more accessible should help it. Ultimately the market will decide these matters - if cars are being stockpiled then either prices will soften and/or production will be cut.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy

It is no surprise the charging infrastructure will lag demand for the next decade as the volume of EVs increases.

It is also likely the case the number of conventional fuel stations will close as fuel sales volume falls. In 20 years the newest ICE will be 10 years old - 9 out of 10 fuel stations may have closed leaving even medium size towns with no way to refuel.

Around 60% of UK homes have off street parking and presumably potential home charging capability. The question is - how will the other 40% cope.

That 60% might include housing developments like mine, that have off-street 'allocated' car parking in car parks, but almost no space (mostly none) adjacent to those spaces for charging points, and certainly no extra space for 'communal' charging locations. We'd also have to save up over a good number of years to afford to build them, as we're not allowed (legally) to borrow the money.

Blocks of flats and houses with communal parking - 1 charger would comfortably service 10 cars each with 1 or 2 charges pw. Costs of installation - any forward thinking development should anticipate the capital expense and create a sinking fund - similar concept for roof replacement etc.

In practice, that wouldn't work for most developments - firstly for the reasons I stated above, but also for the 'German towels on the sun lounger' tactic - some users would hog the charging points (leaving their cars there even when not charging them up), and enforcement is not even, because most developments' parking firms aren't paid (due to the cost) a retainer to be on site all the time, especially in the evening and over weekends when parking problems are worse (attendants don't want to work those hours).

All it would take is for a few people to regularly do this for chaos to erupt, and frankly we have enough problems with people with extra cars parking in visitor spaces. even with a permit system.

Supermarkets, car parks, hotels, retail parks etc are all installing chargers - home charging is not critical to EV ownership. There is a price issue to be dealt with as commercial operators will need recover installation, overheads and profit in the KWH charge.

Some are, but not anywhere near enough. They are mostly installed at the big branches in major towns and cities. None in my locals, and yet there are quite a good number of EVs owned in the area - because up until now, most are owned by the well off living in big houses (especially in the villages and a few newer housing developments) with lots of space and capacity to install home chargers.

I've already seen arguments between people using/queuing for charging points at motorway service stops because there aren't enough and most people don't factor in the chance of them being busy for extended periods, especially around the times people mostly stop off for breaks - normally meal times and mid morning/afternoon.

An argument could be made to put a surplus on council tax for those house owners who install charging - in much the same way as a surcharge for a hosepipe.

However housel owners will have paid for the charger installation. Creating a disincentive to home charge may just increase the load on overloaded publicly available charging.

That the relatively well off could have afforded an EV without subsidies is academic. They also compare costs of ICE vs EV - were EV more expensive they may not have bought them. They are often well off because they do consider these things!

I thought that such people were supposedly doing this for the greater good of the people and the planet, not to 'save money'? Most well-off people can easily afford EVs and could for a long time. That's why they used to buy flashy German sports saloons and SUVs costing £50k+ for the last decade and more.

They never needed a subsidy from the rest of us to buy one - often they changed because it was 'fashionable' to do so, as it seemed 'caring for the environment'. The same goes for all the rest of the 'green' tech - solar PV, heat pumps, etc etc.

There's always going to be people who can 'almost' afford such things, and thus where a subsidy end will always be unfair to them. The problem is forcing non-mature tech onto everyone but where those less able to contribute towards subsidises helps those who easily can, because it takes up a good deal of income they use for surviving, not of the discretionary type.

The better off have always been able to afford new technology first., the less well healed do not generally buy new cars. The price of 2nd owner EVs is developing and increasingly affordable. In 5-10 years time EVs will be accessible to most - just as 10 year old ICE.

The difference is that many on average incomes that 5-7 years ago could afford that new Fiesta, Focus etc can no longer afford a replacement, because significantly increased environmental regs and other measures have forced many manufacturers to drop all family and supermini / city cars altogether (or at least the base and mid spec, previously affordable versions) for ICE and go EV-only, which are well out of their price range.

Many also do not have the space.funds to pay for a home charger, huge bumps in insurance, and, as has been said, the charging network is not even in the ballpark of being adequate for large parts of the country, and won't be for at least a decade, probably longer, given how bad we are at infrastructure, especially government-led / mandated.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
‘It is no surprise the charging infrastructure will lag demand for the next decade as the volume of EVs increases.’

I’d actually argue that the public network is at least on par with the EV rollout. 90,453 public connectors in the UK at the end of March, used by 1,000,000 EV’s. 11 EV’s per public plug.

Conversely, we had 8365 petrol stations at the end of 2022 (latest figures available), but that number is diminishing each year from over 13,000 in 2000. Say each filling station has 10 pumps, that’s 83650 pumps available. There are over 33,000,000 cars on the road in the UK, so 400 cars per pump. Not per petrol station, that’s per pump.

‘But I can fuel my petrol car in five minutes’ I hear you shout, and you’d be correct. But it’s rare to find anyone that can fill a fuel tank at home, which is where an estimated 80% of charging takes place, at a fraction of the cost per mile of petrol or diesel.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - movilogo

Electric cars sold at record discounts as demand plunges

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/22/eight-in-t.../

Almost eight in 10 new electric cars are being sold at a discount as the industry reels from falling consumer demand.

Some 77pc of new electric vehicles (EVs) listed on Auto Trader were advertised at a discount last month, up from 55pc a year earlier, data from the company shows.

The degree of discounting is also on the rise, with the average reduction now standing at a record 11pc.

It came as Tesla announced a string of price cuts in China, the US and Europe following a slowdown in sales.

In China, Elon Musk’s company lowered prices across its range, with the Model Y discounted to 249,900 yuan (£28,500) from 263,900 yuan.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - badbusdriver

Almost eight in 10 new electric cars are being sold at a discount as the industry reels from falling consumer demand.

Some 77pc of new electric vehicles (EVs) listed on Auto Trader were advertised at a discount last month, up from 55pc a year earlier, data from the company shows.

The degree of discounting is also on the rise, with the average reduction now standing at a record 11pc.

What percentage of non-EV's are discounted (and by how much)?. Without this info for comparison, these fact are meaningless.

As it keeps on being pointed out (apparently to deaf ears) there is recession and cost of living crisis pretty much everywhere.

In China, Elon Musk’s company lowered prices across its range, with the Model Y discounted to 249,900 yuan (£28,500) from 263,900 yuan.

What is that, 5.5%?. Hardly sounding the death knell is it?

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - mcb100
I did scan read, just before the paywall closed it down, that EV discounts were on a par with non-EV.
The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Terry W

Need to be clear whether the discounting of new EVs arises due to:

  • fundamental customer dissatisfaction with electric cars - range anxiety, spares availability, depreciation etc.
  • discounting of stock caused by over production of EVs in anticipation of greater sales which have not materialised due to inflation and stagnant economy
  • adjustment of EV pricing to get closer to those of equivalent ICE
  • increased volumes and technology reducing production costs now reflected in pricing
  • competition from new Chinese manufacturers driving down prices
  • imminent removal of many EV subsidies - road tax, company car benefits, etc

To interpret discounting of new EVs as a simple failure of concept is almost certainly flawed - although it clearly plays to the prejudices and pre-conceived notions of some.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Engineer Andy
I did scan read, just before the paywall closed it down, that EV discounts were on a par with non-EV.

I've read it and it says that on UK Autotrader, 31% of EVs were having to discount 'at least' 10% from the original asking price, with petrol cars, the number was 24%.

Unfortunately the report didn't say what the average discount was for either grouping, and any weighting to allow for the types of car sold.

It did say (again) that the number of EVs sold in Europe dropped by 11.3% in March.

Not the best reporting I've seen. IMHO the paper (as have all legacy outlets) is a pale shadow of its former self, mainly since the Barclay Bros takeover and Chris Evans' time as Editor.

TBH it's getting that way across much of the legacy media these days. A lot of the 'old guard' journos have gone (too expensive in a shrinking market with competition from indie outlets run on a shoestring in comparison, especially those based on social media), often replaced by young (cheap) replacements with little knowledge or talent, and who don't question their bosses' decisions.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Brit_in_Germany

Can't see what those last two paragraphs have got to do with this subject.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Xileno

Threads often meander a bit but as long as it keeps mostly to EV then that's fine. Considering we were warned these specific EV threads wouldn't work I think they're doing remarkably well. It's about time for the next Vol though, we aim to chop them at approx 100 posts so people don't have to spend ages hunting down the last contribution.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) thread Vol 8 - Xileno

This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 9 *****

Edited by Xileno on 22/04/2024 at 20:51